Seeking the Unknown
When I finished high school, I could not decide between physics and programming. So, I tossed a French franc 101 times. Physics prevailed 51 to 50. I would not necessarily recommend this method for market forecasting, but in my case the coin made a reasonable decision.
Later, as a scientist, I came to understand that uncertainty is not something to eliminate. It is often where the most interesting work begins. You can be wrong 99 times and then, on the hundredth attempt, understand something that nobody understood before. Repeated failure is uncomfortable, of course, but the possibility of that moment of understanding is why many people choose science.
Business is not altogether different, although we generally prefer clearer odds than a coin toss; the most interesting opportunities in photonics rarely present themselves as clearly defined markets. They begin as questions. Can we observe a process that was previously beyond our view? Can we control light precisely enough to make a new treatment or manufacturing method possible? Can we take something that works on an optical table and make it reliable enough for someone who is not a laser physicist?
Questions of this kind seldom come with reliable forecasts. Some lead nowhere. Others reveal applications that were difficult to imagine in advance. Sustainable growth in photonics therefore cannot rely solely on serving markets we already understand. It also requires staying close to customers, recognizing a meaningful problem early, and being prepared to develop the technology before the scale of the opportunity becomes apparent.
This is where scientific instinct becomes valuable in industry. In science, the unknown is an invitation. In business, it is often framed as a risk. Yet both require the same discipline: form a hypothesis, test it, learn quickly and try again. This does not mean betting the company on every new idea. It means making informed experiments, engaging with users early, and being honest when an approach has not worked.
Markets will inevitably continue to fluctuate. Our response should not be to retreat into the familiar. Curiosity is not a luxury; it is an industrial capability. If Europe’s photonics community continues to seek the unknown, and becomes better at turning it into useful, reliable products, the present recovery can develop into something far more durable, and more fun in retrospect.
Martynas Barkauskas, CEO of Light Conversion
